All 50
Plan on 10 percent
Five million family adults is the high end, inferred, not a census. Ten percent is 500,000 adults. The adult owes $177,600. The child does not. Three missed payments end the path, and a miss is not cash. No state raises the price. A state that refuses only slows the file.
Plan on this
$8.88B
Year 1, if those 500,000 are current. Not a forecast. Not the ceiling.
Who owes: the qualifying adult. What a miss does: three, then removal. What to brief: 10 percent. $8.88 billion in year 1 if they are current. $88.8 billion if they finish. The child does not pay.
Plan on · year 1
$8.88B
10%. 500,000 adults, if current.
If they finish
$88.8B
The same 500,000. Not year 1.
The price does not move. $177,600 either way. Ten percent of 5 million is 500,000 adults and $88.8 billion owed. Cooperation changes how fast cash arrives, not the price and not the headcount.
Year 1
Cash that year, if current
Year 5
Cumulative
Year 10
The adult note, if paid
| Horizon | Plan on 10% | 50%, if they pay | Gap. Do not brief | Means |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.88B | $44.4B | $35.52B | Cash that year, if current |
| Year 5 | $44.4B | $222B | $177.6B | Cumulative |
| Year 10 | $88.8B | $444B | $355.2B | The adult note, if paid |
The gap is not money. It is the 50% column minus the 10% column. Brief the 10% column. Do not brief 25%, 50%, or $1.15 trillion.
State benefits are not in this table. A state that helps can stop benefits it was paying. A state that refuses keeps paying them. That saving is real, and it is not scored here. No state pays an unauthorized adult more than a citizen. Where a state was paying more, that extra ends, and the Fine is still owed. Twenty percent of each collected Fine returns to the state of residence for infrastructure and services only. A state that refuses the file does not get that share.
The ceiling. Not the plan.
$1.15T
Owed. Not cash in year 1.
At $177,600, $1 trillion takes 5.63 million adults. Five million family adults come to $888 billion. Pew counted 1.5 million unauthorized children under 18 in 2023. If they later owe their own Fine, that is $266.4 billion more. The ceiling is $1.15 trillion.
The $1.15 trillion
10% against the ceiling
$8.88B
$88.8B
$44.4B
$444B
$88.8B
$888B
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
| Who | Count | Owed | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Family adults, high end | 5 million | $888 billion | 5 million × $177,600. The top of the 4 to 5 million pool. U.S.-born children are not in this line. |
| Foreign-born children, later | 1.5 million | $266.4 billion | Pew, 2023. Children under 18 who were themselves unauthorized. Not the 4.6 million born here. Not MPI’s 6.3 million minus Pew’s 4.6 million. They pay nothing now. At 18 they can owe their own Fine. No credit for a parent's payments. |
| Ceiling | 6.5 million | $1.15 trillion | 5 million × $177,600 is $888 billion. 1.5 million × $177,600 is $266.4 billion. Together, $1.15 trillion. Not a forecast. Not cash in year 1. Congress still has to write the Fine. |
If the ceiling is paid
| Horizon | Cash to plan on | Ceiling, if paid |
|---|---|---|
| Year 110% of 5 million, if current. The ceiling column is every family adult current. Neither is a forecast. | $8.88B | $88.8B |
| Year 5Halfway through the ten-year note, if current. Children are not in this row. | $44.4B | $444B |
| Year 10The 10% note, if paid. The ceiling is 5 million adults. Children are not in the plan. | $88.8B | $888B |
Brief the climb. Year 1 is $8.88 billion. Year 5 is $44.4 billion. Year 10 is $88.8 billion. Same 500,000 adults, if current. $1.15 trillion is owed only if 5 million adults enroll and 1.5 million children later pay a Fine of their own. None of this is a CBO score.
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